Best Bets Week 2 Nfl

  1. That's the best in the NFL. They are 7-2 ATS this season and covering by an average of DOUBLE DIGITS. The Dolphins are legit. Lay the field goal. I wanted to bet the Colts here.
  2. Week 16 NFL picks, odds: Back Panthers vs. Ron Rivera, don't trust the Bears and more best bets Three picks and a cloud of trust. That was the difference between a 2-1 week and a 1-1-1 week.

Every Friday during the NFL season, ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian (0-2 last week, 18-28-1 overall), Joe Fortenbaugh (1-3, 31-51-1), Anita Marks (10-10, 78-88-2), Preston Johnson (0-0, 14-19), Mike Clay (0-0, 15-10) and Tyler Fulghum (1-6-1, 57-73-2), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (4-1, 29-20), Seth Walder (0-4, 46-29) of ESPN analytics and Aaron Schatz (2-4, 36-43-2) of Football Outsiders will tell us what they like from the weekend's slate.

Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and subject to change.

NFL Betting News. Jeff Siegel's Best Bets for Friday (2-12) By Jeff. A new week begins with a relatively quiet betting slate filled with 10-plus college.

Sunday's 8:20 pm. ET game

Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 56)

Fulghum: Derrick Henry will be up against a Packers defense ranked 21st in the league against the run, allowing 4.55 yards per carry. Dalvin Cook is probably the closest comparison in the league to Henry (at least this season), and Cook has posted 42 carries for 213 yard and five touchdowns against the Packers in two games. Tennessee is 10-3-1 to the over this season and 19-4-1 in Ryan Tannehill regular-season starts. Add in Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' offense on the other side and we should see a shootout.

Pick: Titans +3.5, over 56

Fortenbaugh: Green Bay's weak spot is its run defense, with Henry and the Titans suited quite well to exploit that. Tennessee's weak spot is its pass defense, with Rodgers and the Packers suited quite well to exploit that. On top of all that, overs are 20-6-1 in Tennessee games since Tannehill took over as the team's starting quarterback last season. I think you know where I'm going here.

Pick: Over 56

Kezirian: Tannehill has started 24 regular-season games for Tennessee, and we now know to expect scoring. The over is 19-4-1 in those games. Tannehill is willing to throw deep, Henry can rip off big runs (Preston explains further below) and the defense ranks in the bottom third in yards allowed per play. I expect MVP candidate Rodgers to take full advantage of that. Plus, Green Bay ranks in the bottom half in yards per play allowed, so the Titans will find plenty of opportunities on offense.

Pick: Over 56

Johnson: My personal projection in this matchup is 2.5, so getting the hook on the other side of a key number like three is going to catch my attention. The Packers have been great on offense this season, but their defense still ranks below average. They come in at No. 25 in EPA against the rush and 21st in success rate. The Titans are coming in with the best rushing attack in football and an offense that overall also ranks No. 1 in success rate. Tennessee is Green Bay's worst nightmare from a matchup standpoint, and I'm happy to take the 3.5 points while we get the hook.

Pick: Titans +3.5

Sunday's 1 p.m. ET games

Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5, 53.5)

Fulghum: Kansas City has won nine straight games, but the past six have finished within one score. The Chiefs are just 1-5 ATS in those six games. Matt Ryan is 5-1 ATS in his career as a double-digit underdog. The past two times he's been in that spot, Atlanta has won the game outright. The Falcons' offense could get a boost from the return of Julio Jones, and the defense has played much better under Raheem Morris than it did under Dan Quinn.

Pick: Falcons +10.5, over 53.5

Schatz: Since 1978, the record for wins in a season without covering the spread belongs to the 1986 Bears, with eight. So far this year, the Chiefs have won without covering seven times. This game looks set up for No. 8. That 10.5-point line is perfect for a backdoor cover. Many people have argued that the Chiefs take their foot off the gas with a lead. That's even more likely given that this game is almost entirely pointless for the Chiefs, who have clinched the No. 1 seed unless they lose out, Buffalo wins out, and then Kansas City loses a complicated strength of victory calculation dependent on a bunch of other results. Also, Atlanta is not bad. The Falcons are 17th in weighted DVOA, and they've actually outscored their opponents over the course of the season. In particular, Kansas City might be the cure for Atlanta's problems in the red zone. The Falcons rank 30th in red zone offensive DVOA, but the Chiefs' defense ranks 32nd.

Pick: Falcons +10.5

Marks: The Falcons are looking ahead to next season, and need to assess the talent they have on their current roster. Ito Smith is expected to get the start, and receive a lot of volume this week against the Chiefs. KC is allowing 150 total yards to opposing backfields at the moment.

Pick: Smith over 59.5 combined rushing and receiving yards

Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 44.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Fortenbaugh: Monday night's loss at Cincinnati was just the latest debacle in a horrific month for Pittsburgh. The Steelers are averaging a paltry 17 points per game in their past four, failing to eclipse 20 each time. Ben Roethlisberger has thrown at least one interception in five straight games. Indianapolis is tied for first in turnover differential, is ninth in pressure rate and has been rock solid on the road since that Week 1 loss at Jacksonville, going 5-1 both SU and ATS with a +59 scoring differential. By the way, Pittsburgh is on short rest for the third time in the past four weeks.

Pick: Colts -1.5

Marks: I'm not certain how this line is only 1.5, but I'm rolling with it. The Steelers have been a hot mess the last three weeks, and losing to a Bengals team that was starting a third-string quarterback had to be a season low. Roethlisberger is a shell of himself at the moment, struggling to complete a pass longer than 10 yards, and it is evident he is dealing with a knee injury. The loss of linebacker Bud Dupree was a huge hit as well. Meanwhile, the Colts and Philip Rivers are peaking at the right time. This is not the week the Steelers want to face one of the best defenses in the NFL.

Pick: Colts -1.5, Hines over 21.5 receiving yards, Pascal over 3.5 receptions

Chicago Bears (-7.5, 47) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Marks: I love the Bears in this spot. Chicago's playoff hopes are alive and kicking and the Bears now face a Jags team that is looking to keep its No. 1 draft position to select Trevor Lawrence. The last thing the Jags want is to win and miss out on Lawrence. The Bears are averaging 30-plus points a game with Mitchell Trubisky and David Montgomery back in action. Each team will get what it wants at the end of the day -- the Bears one step closer to the postseason and the Jags closer to getting their franchise quarterback.

Pick: Bears alternate line -9 (+105), Trubisky over 1.5 passing touchdowns, Montgomery to score and Bears to win parlay (-120)

Kezirian: The Jaguars are now two losses away from winning the Lawrence sweepstakes, thanks to the Jets pulling off an improbable win last weekend. Will they blow it? It is absolutely possible, especially considering that the players couldn't care less about draft position. With that being said, there is a reason the Jags have not won since the season opener. Meanwhile, the Bears have shown signs of life, winning their last two games and scoring a combined 69 points. I have to believe Chicago will win this game.

Pick: Bears -1.5 in teaser with Bills -1

Cleveland Browns (-9.5, 47.5) at New York Jets

Fulghum: Don't let the Jets' win over the Rams fool you. The Jets are allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt (fifth most in league) and they struggle to pressure the quarterback. Their 4.6% sack rate is 26th in the league, and Baker Mayfield has been balling lately even without Odell Beckham Jr. Of course, Kevin Stefanski prefers to run the ball, and the Browns can inflict their will there too.

Pick: Browns -9.5

New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens (-11, 45)

Bearman: The Giants haven't gone over 17 points since November. They've failed to get there in half their games this season and haven't even broken 300 total yards in the past three games. Their offense is fourth worst in the league at 17.4 points per game, and they now face an improved and healthier Ravens defense. Daniel Jones has missed two of the past three games due to hamstring and ankle issues and won't be able to use his legs a lot if he does play. If he's out, in steps Colt McCoy, who has looked OK but not great. Both teams are fighting for the playoffs, but Baltimore's road is much easier, and I expect the Ravens to pull out all the stops.

Pick: Giants team total under 17.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-8, 46)

Kezirian: Cincinnati's win on Monday Night Football as a two-touchdown underdog was extremely impressive. Given it was just the Bengals' third win, that was their season's high point. So that means this has all the makings of a poor week of practice and performance on Sunday. I expect a similar effort to what we expected the week before that clash with the Steelers, which saw Cincy lose 30-7 at home to Dallas. I do not love backing such a poor Texans squad, but the situation is too enticing for me to pass up a teaser leg.

Pick: Texans -2 in teaser with Saints -1

Marks: Giovani Bernard is coming off a great game last week against a good Steelers defense and came close to posting 100 yards. The Bengals keep it going this week against a more favorable match up against one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL.

Pick: Bernard over 49.5 rushing yards

Sunday's 4 p.m. ET games

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 47.5)

Fulghum: Following one of the biggest regular-season upsets in the past decade, this seems like a good time to buy low on the Rams. They should be focused and bring a tremendous effort with what's on the line against Seattle. A win and Los Angeles is in the playoffs. The Rams are 13-5 ATS after a loss under Sean McVay and have covered in each of the past three meetings against the Seahawks.

Pick: Rams +1.5

Fortenbaugh: The Rams are coming off that stunning 23-20 loss to the previously winless Jets. The good news is that Los Angeles tends to respond well after a loss, going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS after a defeat this season, winning by a healthy 9.7 points per game. There's been a lot of talk about Seattle's improved defense, but look at the quarterbacks it has faced the past four weeks: Carson Wentz, Colt McCoy, Sam Darnold, Dwayne Haskins. Maybe we pump the brakes a bit on that narrative?

Pick: Rams +1.5

Marks: The Rams losing to the Jets last week has Seattle favored. The Rams are the better team but underestimated the Jets and probably had their sights on the Seahawks, knowing the NFC West title would be on the line.

McVay has had success against Seattle, going 5-2 since taking the Rams job. The Rams' defense will stifle Seattle's passing attack, and Russell Wilson will have another difficult afternoon against Aaron Donald and his crew.

Pick: Rams +7.5 in teaser with Panthers +8.5

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 49.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Johnson: There is a lot to sift through when it comes to the data we have from both of these teams this season. Not only has the Philly offense been more efficient surrounding Jalen Hurts, but the Cowboys have had four different quarterbacks play games this season. Andy Dalton has been significantly better than the run of Ben DiNucci and Garrett Gilbert under center.

Hurts and the Eagles have been especially deadly on the ground, racking up 363 yards against the Saints and Cardinals. Both defenses the Eagles have seen rank above average defending the run; the Cowboys rank 27th. I project this total at 51.8, after making adjustments for the way both teams are currently constructed. That's good enough for me to go over at 49.5.

Pick: Over 49.5

Bearman: The Eagles' offense is significantly better with Hurts at quarterback, and the Cowboys can't stop anyone. After spending the entire year near the bottom of the offensive rankings, the Eagles have scored 24 points against the Saints and passed for 305 yards against the Cardinals. The Cowboys have given up 33+ points eight times this year, including three of their past four games. Both teams can still win the NFC East and should be pulling out all the stops. I am not comfortable laying 2.5 on the road with Philadelphia, and I definitely don't trust Dallas. I'm expecting to see a lot of points in a 30-27 type game.

Pick: Over 49.5

Marks: The Eagles starting Jalen Hurts at quarterback, has opened the rushing lanes for Sanders, and is utilized in the Eagles passing game as well. Expect Miles Sanders to have a huge day against a Cowboys rushing defense that each week gets destroyed by opposing backfields, allowing over 5 yards per carry. Fly Eagle Fly!

Pick: Sanders over 102.5 rushing and receiving yards

Carolina Panthers at Washington (-2.5, 44.5)

Schatz: Carolina and Washington are basically tied in our DVOA ratings, so this pick is about two things: first, the fact that offense is more predictive of the future than defense. Washington is third on defense but 30th on offense; Carolina is 30th on defense but 10th on offense. Second, Washington's quarterback situation is a mess. Washington's pass DVOA drops from -24.7% for the season to -33.4% with Dwayne Haskins at quarterback.

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Pick: Panthers +2.5

Marks: Haskins' poor decisions are causing too much outside noise for Washington this week. Meanwhile, this is a Panthers team that is a great road 'dog (5-0 ATS), and I'm sure it's excited to face former coach Ron Rivera. There has been a lot of buzz about Washington's defense of late, but it was the Panthers' defense that held Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' offense to 54 net yards in the second half last week. The Panthers' offense has enough firepower to win, let alone cover.

Pick: Panthers +8.5 in teaser with Rams +7.5, Bridgewater over 22.5 completions

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 48.5)

Kezirian: I believe this line will close higher than three points, so I want to grab the perceived value, and I also like this side. Eight weeks ago, the Chargers led in Denver by 21 points only to end up losing. I think the Bolts take care of business this time around behind standout rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. Broncos QB Drew Lock has done some nice things and the offense is effective on play-action passes to the flat, but that conservative approach also has limitations. The Chargers can strike for big plays, and that will be the difference.

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Pick: Chargers -3

Marks: Phillip Lindsay is out Sunday, and I expect the Broncos to tee up Melvin Gordon III against his former team. In games where Gordon rolls solo, he is averaging over 80 rushing yards a game.

Pick: Gordon over 92.5 rushing and receiving yards

Saturday's games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5, 54) at Detroit Lions

Schatz: Mike Evans has gone under 57 receiving yards in three of his past four games. But the Lions really juice opponent passing stats this year. Opposing No. 1 receivers are averaging 73.5 yards against the Lions. And Evans maintains his place at the center of the Buccaneers' passing game. He's played at least 75% of snaps in every game this year but Week 4, while Antonio Brown's snaps have dropped below 50% the past two games. Football Outsiders estimates a 63% chance that Evans hits this prop.

Pick: Evans over 57.5 receiving yards (-115)

Clay: Tom Brady is averaging 2.3 passing touchdowns per game and has thrown three or more in five games this season. Four of those games were wins, and consider this: The Buccaneers' offense is averaging a massive 4.0 touchdowns per game in the team's nine wins, and that includes 2.7 passing scores per game. Brady has an elite matchup this week against a Detroit defense that has allowed three or more passing scores in six games this season, including three of its past four. In total, the Lions' defense has allowed a league-high 53 touchdowns (3.8 per game), including 29 through the air (fourth most). The Buccaneers are heavy favorites, which could lead to a poor game script for Brady, but he shouldn't have much trouble finding the end zone often. The generous juice makes this one worthwhile.

Pick: Brady over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+130)

Walder: This is a high line for a T.J. Hockenson. In order to justify that, we'd expect Hockenson to either average a high depth of target or high depth on his routes run per NFL Next Gen Stats (I usually use 3 seconds after the snap). He has neither. Hockenson is average for tight ends in both categories. The one concern is volume; his 24% target rate ranks seventh-most among tight ends with at least 150 routes run. But that's not enough to sway me from the under.

From the Bucs offense, I don't think Brown's opportunity is worth the receiving yards total posted here. Brown's expected completed air yards per game is just 30.1 -- less than half the prop. I've never studied it formally, but based on what I've seen this year I'd estimate that receivers' expected completed air yards per game generally is in the 65-75% range of their receiving yard props. While Brown is catching passes at an above average rate, given the throws he's been targeted on, I still think the under is the right side given the chances he's seeing.

Picks: Hockenson longest reception under 18.5 yards (-110); Brown under 62.5 receiving yards (-115)

Marks: Tampa is looking to better their postseason seed, meanwhile, the Lions have their focus on next season. Brady is averaging over 8 yards per pass attempt the last several weeks, and Sunday gets a juicy match up against a Lions team that is one of the worst in pressure rate and have allowed multiple touchdowns to opposing gunslingers this December. Expect Brady to target Mike Evans in the red zone (12 red zone targets), a trend we have seen all season.

Pick: Brady over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+130), Evans to score TD and Bucs win (+130)

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5, 48.5)

Bearman: The Cardinals are peaking at the right time, coming off an exhilarating win over the Eagles and a shutdown of the Giants the week before. This week they get the playing-out-the-string 49ers. Arizona can still win the NFC West with two wins and some help. The Cardinals are averaging 29 points per game over the past three weeks, with Kyler Murray passing for seven touchdowns and running for another. San Francisco is a mess on both sides of the ball, with Nick Mullens throwing at least one pick in each of the past six games, and now he's out as well. The 49ers just lost back-to-back games against NFC East teams, ending their playoff chances.

Pick: Cardinals -4.5

Fortenbaugh: The defending NFC champs have lost six of their past seven, by 11.1 points per game, while surrendering an average of 30.8 points. It's gotten so bad that Kyle Shanahan is turning to third-string quarterback C.J. Beathard. Complicating matters further is Murray, who the 49ers have never covered the spread against (0-2-1). San Francisco's Achilles' heel on defense is the mobile, dual-threat quarterback, a description Murray fits like a glove. One team is chasing a playoff spot, the other is finishing a lost season. Lay the points.

Pick: Cardinals -4.5

Marks: : Kyle Juszczyk has 6 receptions for 70 yards in his last 4 games, and all 4 games he posted 6 receiving yards or more. 3.5 receiving yards seems like a small prop to achieve!

Pick: Juszczyk over 3.5 receiving yards

Miami Dolphins (-3, 47.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

Bearman: The Dolphins' defense leads the NFL in takeaways (26), points allowed per game (18.4) and third-down conversions (32.5%), and has held eight of the past 10 opponents under 21 points. But the offense has topped 22 points just once in the past five games. The Raiders are trending in the wrong direction, and Derek Carr may be out. Backup QB Marcus Mariota was able to get the offense going last week against the Chargers, but he was still mistake-prone with one pick and almost a couple more.

Pick: Under 47.5

Marks: The Dolphins are still fighting for a playoff spot and now take on a Raiders offense that has struggled of late. Running back Josh Jacobs has averaged only 3 yards per carry since Week 10, and Carr is dealing with a groin injury (Mariota is expected to get the start). The Dolphins have a top-five defense and won't make things easy. Wide receiver Lynn Bowden has contributed to the Dolphins' offense the last three games, and I like this matchup for him going against the team that traded him away. Look for the Dolphins to tee him up.

Pick: Miami -3, Darren Waller over 56.5 receiving yards

Friday's game

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-7, 51)

Schatz: Don't overreact to Drew Brees having a poor game against Kansas City. Brees' performance in Weeks 1-10 tells us more than one bad game does. Take out the four Taysom Hill games and the Saints' weighted offensive DVOA (giving more weight to recent games) goes from 6.0% to 11.7%. Obviously this works on the other side of the ball, too -- any proper consideration of the Saints' defense removes the Week 12 game when Denver didn't have a quarterback -- but overall, the Saints are probably better than their yearlong numbers. And the Saints' overall weighted DVOA is more than 35 percentage points higher than Minnesota's. New Orleans is in the top 10 in all three phases, and Minnesota is not in the top 10 in any of them.

Pick: Saints -7

Kezirian: I realize the Vikings won in New Orleans in last year's playoffs, and a full seven points makes me feel like I am paying a tax. However, I just cannot justify backing Minnesota after such a disinterested performance last week against Chicago with so much at stake. Brees showed some rust in his return from injury, but I trust the New Orleans offense to handle its business against this leaky Minnesota secondary. If Kirk Cousins wins again at the Superdome, then so be it. I am taking the Saints in a teaser.

Pick: Saints -1 in teaser with Texans -2

Marks: The Vikings fooled me once last week, but not again! They have lost to both the Cowboys and the Bears the last few weeks, and neither can hold a candle to the Saints. Keep in mind, this is a revenge game for New Orleans, considering the Vikings put an end to the Saints' season last year. Brees looked rusty last week, but facing a Vikings defense that ranks 26th in pressure rate and allows over 30 points per game just might be what the football gods ordered. The Saints' defense is polar opposite, ranked second best, first in pressure rate and can stop the run, which will put a damper on the Vikings' play-action calls. The Saints roll, and Cousins will be forced to throw a lot to keep pace.

Pick: Saints -1 and over 45.5 in teaser; Cousins over 32.5 passing attempts (+100); Justin Jefferson over 4.5 receptions (-140); Emmanuel Sanders over 61.5 receiving yards (-115).

Every Friday during the NFL season, ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian (1-2-1 last week, 19-30-2 overall), Joe Fortenbaugh (0-4, 31-55-1), Anita Marks (14-10, 92-98-2), Preston Johnson (1-1, 15-20), Mike Clay (1-0, 16-10) and Tyler Fulghum (1-5, 58-78-2), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (2-2, 31-22), Seth Walder (2-2, 48-31) of ESPN analytics and Aaron Schatz (4-0, 40-43-2) of Football Outsiders will tell us what they like from the weekend's slate.

Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and subject to change.

Sunday's 8:20 p.m. ET game

Washington Football Team (-1.5, 43.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

Fortenbaugh: The toxicity that is 2019 first-round selection Dwayne Haskins has been removed from the equation, thus paving the way for Washington to resume its march toward an improbable divisional crown. Washington ranks third in opponent yards per play and hasn't allowed a single foe to score more than 20 points in six straight games. That's bad news for Eagles rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts, who now has three games' worth of tape for Washington to study, a tape that shows a worrisome 54.7% completion rate and four turnovers in three starts.

Pick: Washington -1.5

Marks: A lot is riding on whether Alex Smith starts at QB for Washington, but we are burying the lead. The key for Washington has been its defense, specifically a front seven that will be a force to be reckoned with for Hurts. Pass-rusher Chase Young is licking his chops. The Eagles' season is over, and there is the possibility they could rest some players. There has also been speculation about coach Doug Pederson's future with the organization. Washington is in the driver's seat to win the NFC East and will seal the deal on Sunday night.

Pick: Washington +4.5 in three-team teaser with Giants (+9)

Sunday's 1 p.m. ET games

Dallas Cowboys (-3, 44.5) at New York Giants

Fulghum: The winners of this game will keep their playoff hopes alive and become massive Eagles fans on Sunday night. If the Eagles beat Washington, the winner of this Cowboys-Giants game is your 2020 NFC East champion. What an accomplishment. I like the Cowboys, who have covered three consecutive games after starting the season an NFL-worst 2-10 against the spread (ATS). The offensive line has solidified and avoided more injury, the defense is playing better -- especially taking the ball away -- and quarterback Andy Dalton is capably distributing to his myriad weapons. Now that Ezekiel Elliott realized Tony Pollard might take his job, the Cowboys have a dynamic duo at running back that can expose a Giants defense that has allowed 257 yards to opposing running backs over the past two weeks at 4.9 yards per clip. Whether it is Colt McCoy or a clearly hobbled Daniel Jones at QB for the G-Men, I just don't think they have enough firepower to hang with the Cowboys.

Pick: Cowboys -3, over 44.5

Marks: The Cowboys have been playing well of late, but look at their past three opponents: the Bengals, 49ers and Eagles. The Giants' defense presents a much different challenge for Dalton & Co.; no way does the Cowboys quarterback throw for over 350 yards against the Giants like he did against Philly. I'm expecting a big game from Giants running back Wayne Gallman against a Dallas defense allowing almost 5 yards per carry, especially with bad weather conditions expected.

Pick: Giants +9 in two-team teaser with Washington (+4.5), Gallman over 53.5 rush yards (-115)

Walder: Looking at our numbers on Sunday, I knew -- even after an upgrade to Dallas' rating and a downgrade to the Giants' -- that ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) was still going to favor the Giants in Week 17, a departure from the market. With the line getting up to 3, it's now a pretty strong take, too. FPI's opinion here is basically a play against recency bias. Dallas had its most efficient game of offense last weekend against the Eagles. And the Giants' defense -- their strength -- had its least efficient performance of the season last weekend against the Ravens. Our model isn't going to put that much stock in those singular performances relative to the other 14 each team has had. A field goal in Dallas' direction is an overcorrection in FPI's eyes, and I agree.

Pick: Giants +3

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-10, 42)

Fortenbaugh: Keep an eye on the weather in Cleveland this weekend, but assuming a tornado doesn't touch down in northeastern Ohio, I'm backing the Browns to hang some points. The Steelers' defense is surrendering an average of 25 points per game over their past four outings -- and that's with all of their starters giving maximum effort. What's going to happen in Week 17 when the Steelers have nothing to play for? Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has already been ruled out, so I wouldn't be surprised if more starters -- especially on the defensive side -- were either told to take the day off or are given a quick hook early in the game.

Pick: Browns team total over 26.5 points

Marks: The Browns' facility was closed down for a bit Wednesday for COVID-19 tracing, which is a concern, but I'm anticipating quarterback Baker Mayfield, along with his wide receiving corps, will be active, as will Wyatt Teller and Jedrick Wills on the offensive line. I love the Browns team total over 26.5 points. The Steelers will be resting players, and coach Mike Tomlin should pull players on both the sides of the ball, especially in the second half.

Pick: Browns team total over 26.5 points

Baltimore Ravens (-13, 44.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Marks: The Ravens need to win to get into the postseason, so they will be one of few teams playing with all hands on deck. Baltimore has bounced back strong from its battle with COVID-19. Quarterback Lamar Jackson is averaging 50 rushing yards per game and Mark Andrews over 60 receiving yards per game over the past month, and the backfield has not missed a beat with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards.

The Bengals have won two in a row, but the Ravens' defense poses a totally different challenge for quarterback Brandon Allen.

Pick: Ravens -3 in three-team teaser with Rams (+13) and Colts (-4) Dobbins over rushing yards (TBD)

Schatz: The trick with picking Bengals games over the past few weeks has been trying to figure out just how good the Cincinnati offense is with backup quarterbacks. And the answer seems to be 'better than we thought.' After two good games in the past two weeks, Cincinnati's offensive DVOA without Joe Burrow (minus-16.9%) is almost back to its offensive DVOA with Burrow (minus-16.1%).

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Meanwhile, the Ravens' offense has been improving in recent weeks, but that masks the decline from their defense. In Weeks 1-6, Baltimore's defense had a DVOA of minus-17.3%, third in the league. (Defensive ratings are better when they are lower.) Since its Week 7 bye, Baltimore has a defensive DVOA of plus-3.4%, which ranks just 18th. The Ravens should win this game and punch a playoff ticket, but the line is just a bit too large for my taste.

Pick: Bengals +13

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3, 40)

Schatz: For a long time, there was speculation that Patriots coach Bill Belichick might throw this game to keep the Jets out of the top draft slot. That's no longer an issue, and I think Belichick really wants to finish this bad season on a good note. The market might be overrating the Jets now based on two wins, but unlike New York's previous opponent, the Patriots will be playing with wide receivers who have actually practiced with the team. (They might not be very good, but they've at least practiced!)

As bad as the Patriots have been this season, they've been better than the Jets, and that's probably still true even if they give Jarrett Stidham some run to see what they've got in their young backup quarterback. The biggest gap between these teams comes on special teams, where the Patriots are No. 1 in Football Outsiders' DVOA and the Jets rank 29th. If quarterback Sam Darnold wants to win a third straight game, he'll need to overcome some bad field position.

Pick: Patriots -3

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5, 50.5)

Bearman: These two teams squared off two weeks ago, and I wrote in this column that it was 'put up or go home time' for the Bucs' offense and picked their team total over 28 as my play. After being shut out in that Dec. 20 first half, likely marking the low point of the season, Tom Brady and the offense exploded for 31 second-half points and haven't stopped since, putting up 47 more last weekend vs. the Lions. That's 78 points in the past six quarters while gearing up for a playoff run. Tampa Bay has clinched a spot in the 14-team dance but still has a fantastic opportunity to clinch the 5-seed and a date with the NFC East champion, which is the best possible matchup. The offense is right where it needs to be, and I see that continuing in the last warm-up before the postseason.

The Falcons did a great job of slowing down the Chiefs juggernaut last weekend, but you have to wonder how much Kansas City put into that one. Brady gutted the Falcons' defense for 356 yards and 31 points in the second half two weeks ago. With a top-five NFL draft pick on the horizon for the Falcons, I don't expect a close one here. Plus, in the Super Bowl era, when teams meet twice in a three-week span, the team that covered the first meeting (which in this case was Atlanta) is 5-12-1 ATS in the second meeting.

Pick: Buccaneers -6.5, Bucs team total over 28

Minnesota Vikings (-6.5, 54) at Detroit Lions

Marks: Dalvin Cook isn't playing Sunday, likely putting more emphasis on a Vikings passing game that is already averaging 40 attempts per game. Kirk Cousins has a juicy matchup against a Lions defense that is allowing multiple touchdowns to gunslingers each week. Vegas has this game total at 54, and I expect the Vikings to put up at least 30.

Pick: Cousins over 2.5 TD passes (+155)

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (OFF)

Nfl Best Bets Week 2

Kezirian: I am not sold on Miami as a legitimate playoff team, but I do believe the Dolphins will win this game. The Bills will likely rest key players, and even if their starters suit up, I don't envision them playing the entire game. Coach Sean McDermott comes from the Andy Reid coaching tree, and that is fueling my speculation. In terms of quarterback, Matt Barkley is a pretty weak backup. Given the playoff implications, I have to imagine Miami does enough to eke out a victory.

Pick: Dolphins

Sunday's 4 p.m. ET games

Green Bay Packers (-5.5, 51.5) at Chicago Bears

Fulghum: Keyed by the exemplary play of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the Packers enter Week 17 with something significant to play for -- the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC and a first-round playoff bye. Rodgers should deliver that in this matchup against a Bears team that needs a win to keep its postseason hopes alive. Good luck, Chicago. Rodgers is 18-7 ATS (including playoffs) in starts against the Bears, including three consecutive covers.

Pick: Packers -5.5, over 51.5

Week 2 Nfl Winning Predictions

Marks: The Bears' secondary is dealing with injuries in the secondary, with both Jaylon Johnson and Buster Skrine out this week. meanwhile, Packers wide receiver Davante Adams has 17 touchdowns this season, and chances are he tags another one or two on this week. Rodgers has another week to make his MVP case, and I expect him to put on a show.

Pick: Rodgers over 2.5 TD passes, Adams scores TD and Packers win (+110)

Arizona Cardinals (-3, 41) at Los Angeles Rams

Marks: Kyler Murray is expected to start at quarterback for the Cardinals this weekend, but I expect him to be limited with his leg injury. As for the Rams, John Wolford will get the start, and I expect Sean McVay will get creative with a fun game plan for him, considering Wolford is more athletic than Jared Goff. Wolford can run the ball, and the Cardinals rank 30th in rushing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks. McVay owns Kliff Kingsbury and his Cardinals defense, averaging over 30 points and 400 total yards per game in their matchups. Don't underestimate Wolford come Sunday.

Pick: Rams +13 in three-team teaser with Ravens (-3) and Colts (-4), Wolford over 23.5 rushing yards (-115)

Tennessee Titans (-7.5, 56) at Houston Texans

Best Nfl Moneyline Bets Week 2

Bearman: The Titans' offense keeps scoring and the defense hasn't been able to stop anyone not named Jacksonville. Tennessee games are 11-3-1 to the over this season and 20-4-1 since the start of last season when Ryan Tannehill starts at QB. This includes overs in six of the past seven games, going under only when Jacksonville couldn't score more than 10 points and neither team scored in the final quarter. The most recent time these two teams, met back in Week 6, there was 78 points and over 1,000 yards of total offense. The Titans have the third-highest scoring offense in the league (30 points per game) and are averaging an NFL-best 33.5 PPG over the past six weeks despite scoring only 14 Sunday night at Lambeau Field.

The Titans' defense is 28th in the league in pass yards allowed (271.9), which is a bad recipe with Deshaun Watson coming to town. Watson has been one of the best QBs in the league the past six weeks, averaging 320 pass yards per game with 12 TDs, one interception and a 73.8 QBR -- and he should have a field day vs. the Titans' secondary, like Aaron Rodgers did last weekend. Oh, and the Texans' defense is even worse than the Titans', ranking 30th or worse in all major categories. The great thing about picking overs in Titans games is that Tennessee doesn't blow anyone out, so both teams are fighting to the very end.

Pick: Over 56, Titans team total over 32.5

Walder: The recipe for a longest reception over is fairly simple; you need a player that gets deep, is targeted often, makes catches when targeted and, ideally, garners extra yards after catch. A.J. Brown checks all four boxes. Among the 99 wide receivers with at least 200 routes run, Brown ranks sixth in depth three seconds into a route (per NFL Next Gen Stats), 10th in target rate, has a catch percentage two points over expectation and records 3.7 extra yards of YAC relative to Next Gen Stats' model. Despite that, Brown's line here is just 22.5, not particularly high for a high-end receiver. I think that's because Brown's average depth of target actually only ranks 44th and the Titans are a run-first offense. Those are causes of concern, but it's not enough to move me off a middling line for an ideal player to either catch or break a long one.

Pick: Brown longest reception over 22.5 yards (-120)

Marks: Watson has had a great season, but his stats often get overlooked since he plays for a losing team. Last week he tossed for over 300 yards (yet again) and three touchdowns. And this week he has a prime matchup against a Titans secondary that has allowed over 10 receiving touchdowns to opposing teams' lead receivers. Brandin Cooks received 10 targets last week, and I expect that volume to continue with Will Fuller still on suspension.

As for the Titans, Derrick Henry is 223 rushing yards away from becoming the eighth NFL running back to rush for 2,000 yards in a season. Houston is allowing 5.4 yards per carry to opposing running backs, and I expect Tennessee to do everything in its power to help Henry reach the 2,000 mark. Why not throw a little coin on it and cheer him on?

Pick: Watson over 275.5 passing yards (+105), Cooks scores TD (+138), Henry over 117.5 rush yards (-115)

Seattle Seahawks (-5.5, 46) at San Francisco 49ers

Kezirian: The Seahawks have the slimmest of chances to score a first-round bye, needing a victory and then losses by both Green Bay and New Orleans. Meanwhile, the Niners demonstrated last weekend that they have not bailed on this season. Star tight end George Kittle returned from injury and posted 92 receiving yards, helping San Francisco upset Arizona. C.J. Beathard replaced Nick Mullens and provided better quarterback play. Seattle coach Pete Carroll has said his team will go all out, and the Seahawks play at the same time as the Packers and Saints. But does that mean Carroll will leave quarterback Russell Wilson in the entire game? Plus, let's give San Francisco a chance, given it is a bit healthier and can run on anyone.

Pick: 49ers +5.5

New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 47.5) at Carolina Panthers

Schatz: Take out the Taysom Hill games and New Orleans goes up 5% in offensive DVOA and 8.6% in weighted offensive DVOA. But the real gap between these teams comes on defense, where the Saints rank third (fifth if you take out Week 12 when Denver didn't have a quarterback) and the Panthers are just 25th. In particular, the Panthers rank 31st on third and fourth downs, so their defense has a real problem getting off the field. And the Panthers are just 29th against running backs in the passing game -- not a great weakness to have when facing Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara. The Saints have real incentive to play this game seriously since they're still in the race for a first-round bye and should cover this spread.

Pick: Saints -6.5

Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, 44) at Kansas City Chiefs

Schatz: How can you pick a team that's sitting its starters in preparation for the playoffs? There's actually a history in the NFL of good teams sitting starters and winning anyway, whether it's the 2004 Steelers behind Tommy Maddox keeping Buffalo out of the playoffs or last season's Ravens with Robert Griffin III running all over the Steelers. And we've already seen that the Chiefs can play well without Patrick Mahomes; Matt Moore last season finished up a blowout win over Denver and then went 1-1 in Mahomes' place, losing to Green Bay by just one score. I'm guessing most of the Chiefs' defense will still be playing and playing with pride, and nothing the Chiefs do to sit starters can solve the problems of the Los Angeles special-teams unit, one of the worst in history.

Pick: Chiefs +3.5

Fortenbaugh: Since 1990, teams that have already clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs entering Week 17 are an abysmal 9-23 against the spread in their last regular-season game. And that's on top of the fact that Kansas City has failed to cover the number in seven straight contests. Coach Andy Reid isn't going to risk the health and well-being of his defending champs for a meaningless matchup against the Chargers. However, Los Angeles has been playing competent football over the last month of the season, winning and covering the number in three straight. The Chargers want to finish strong and I'm sure the Chiefs will be happy to oblige, thus harming the draft position of their divisional rival.

Pick: Chargers -3.5

Kezirian: I am with Joe on this. The Chiefs have barely looked interested over the past month in games that matter, so what makes us think they will care about this game? Reid's comments this week illustrate a coach who believes his team can flip a switch after two weeks off when the Chiefs play their first playoff game. That 9-23 ATS trend Joe mentioned carries weight for me, showing how a top seed's focus is beyond Week 17. The betting market has sharpened over the years, so I would argue that record is a bit misleading, as oddsmakers have smartened up with how certain teams approach Week 17. Even so, I am fine laying points on the road in this unique setting.

Pick: Chargers -3.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-14, 50)

Marks: The Jaguars must be thrilled to have prevailed in the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes. Mike Glennon is getting the start at quarterback this weekend, running back James Robinson is shut down for the season and wide receiver DJ Chark is dealing with a shin injury. With playoff hopes in mind, the Colts are going to roll all over Jacksonville. Philip Rivers should toss a few touchdowns, and I expect him to share the wealth among wide receivers T.Y. Hilton, Michael Pittman and Zach Pascal.

Bets

Pick: Colts -4 in three-team teaser with Rams (+13) and Ravens (-3), Jonathan Taylor over 83.5 rushing yards (-120) , Nyheim Hines over 2.5 receptions (-115), Pascal TD & Colts win (+190)

Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5, 50.5) at Denver Broncos

Fulghum: The Raiders' offense is set up to take advantage of a reeling Broncos defense that is missing the following key pieces: Von Miller, Jurrell Casey and Mike Purcell. Bradley Chubb might also miss his second straight game. Denver coach Vic Fangio is a great defensive mind, but he is playing short-handed. On the other side, QB Drew Lock is as volatile as they come (perhaps Jared Goff has something to say about that), but this matchup against a Charmin-soft Raiders defense sets up as a ceiling game for the Broncos signal-caller. Even if Lock is off, perhaps his propensity to turn the ball over leads to short fields or easy points and helps us hit the over.

Pick: Over 50.5

Marks: Jerry Jeudy was targeted 15 times last week but had a horrendous day, concerting only six into catches. Look for the Broncos to go right back to Jeudy on Sunday to build his confidence. The Raiders pose a favorable matchup that will allow Jeudy to rebound.

Pick: Jeudy over 3.5 receptions (+120), Jeudy over 39.5 receiving yards (-115)

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